COVID19 – Challenges and Opportunities for India !

Corona-virus has brought down wheels of economies to a stand still with almost all countries in lockdown or emergency mode. Some economies took the risk of continuing production, but ultimately resorted to Lockdown. There is no vaccine at the moment. If at all a vaccine is found, it will take months for its commercial production. Economics, Strategists, Governments are struggling with the damage caused by Pandemic. The immediate priority of the Governments is saving lives, lest Pandemic can be more deadlier as have been in past.

The impact of such pandemics is immense in terms of lives we lose. The impact is demotivating if not devastating on the Economies. The challenges to be faced next will be bringing back economies to normal, unemployment, NPAs, Growth. Historically, Mankind has faced several natural disasters, man made disasters since the start of the civilization.

World GDP has become 18 times (on nominal basis) while Population increased by 4.6 times. In simple terms, the need and life style of people has grown by 4 times in last 120 years. Table below depicts the journey of World GDP, and growth of Population. World output has been mounted by 5 times since start of 20th Century. The New world is no more local, it is inter-twinned, inter-woven. The extent of dependency of economies on each other is paramount.

Any slow down or change in improved lifestyle is demotivating to devastating. Stopping a wheel of 90 Trillions and starting it again will need lot of reshuffling, realignment, stimulus, and top of all TIME. Pandemics are not new to the civilization in past one hundred years at least on 2 occasions the world got devastated. While the countries recover psychologically, there will be change in Economic world order. As will be discussed later, the world’s input needs are highly concentrated to one country China. The Pandemic has caused economies to rethink to avoid recurrence of such havoc again.

The confidence of the world is eroding the way CCP, WHO handled the Pandemic. In order to diversify and mitigate the losses, big countries like US, Japan, Italy, UK have already expressed their willingness to shift manufacturing base from China to other countries. China’s exports close to 2.5 Trillion Dollars on yearly basis (2018). The number is close to the overall GDP of India on nominal basis. People look this event as an opportunity for shift of manufacturing base from China to India. Let us evaluate various factors in context of India in the event their is substantial or large chunk of manufacturing base to India. We are evaluating this scenario because next better available option to world is Vietnam and Indonesia lack availability of Manpower (a basic ingredient to manufacturing process).

First let us examine the kind of opportunity we are dealing with. China’s big trading partners are the big economies where labour is costlier. To domesticate their consumption, these economies don;t have kind of cheaper inputs of production. If at all these countries start to manufacture their own needs, the prices of outputs will be much higher. Let us evaluate the Chinese trade into type of goods being exported, imported and country wise transaction.

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The Exports of China of $2.5 Trillions mainly includes Capital goods of $ 1.15 Trillions such as Transportation, Machines and Electronics. Capital goods export is almost 46% of its total exports . Next highest category is Consumer Goods (Textiles, Footwears, Wood, Hides and Skins, Food Products, Vegetables, etc.). The exports to US were 20%, Hongkong 12%, Japan 6%, South Korea 4.5%, UK 2.3%, Australia 1.9% Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand put together 11%.

China’s Imports of $ 2.13 Trillion in 2018 included imports 10% from South Korea, 9.2% from Japan, 8% from USA, Germany 5.4%, Australia 5.4%, Brazil 3.9%, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand 8.8% and rest other countries. The major component imported were Electrical and electronic equipment 24%, fuels 16%. Rest of imports largely commodities such as metals, non-metals.

China’s top trading partners’

China’s Export to its top trading partner US included 152 $B of electrical machinery, Machinery 117 $B, furniture and bedding B$, toys and sports equipment 27$B and Plastics were 19$B. China imported Aircraft 18 $B, machinery 14B$, Electrical Machinery 13$B, Medical instruments 10$$B, agricultural products 9.3 $B. US Also exported 59 $B services to China.

China’s export to Japan 2nd largest trading partner were Electrical machinery of 52.4B$, machinery of 31.1 B$ clothing 18 B$, and chemicals worth 12 B$. China imported from Japan 52 B$ of machinery, 32 B$of Electrical machinery, chemicals worth 24B$, transport equipments 14.4B$ during 2018.

Hong Kong is China’s 3rd largest trading partner. It can be termed as China’s trading hub since almost all the goods exported by Hongkong to China are for re-export. China’s Export during 2018 to Hong Kong were Electrical machinery of 160 B$, machinery of 44 B$ medical equipments 10 B$. China imported from Hongkong 198 B$ of machinery, 19 B$ of Electrical machinery, and machinery of 39 B$ during 2018. Hongkong’s Import and Export were almost 44.2% and 46.3% respectively and exclusively with China

We see demonstrated above how big is the trade we are talking about. The total foreign trade of China is approxiately 4.5 Trillion $. Its 150% of India’s GDP alone. Shifting base from China to other countries would mean a retaliatory action by China to shift its import base as well. We saw it is not that simple. Another weighing evaluation for sustainable growth of Output is Cost of Factor of production which includes Labour, Rent and Capital cost. The other qualitative factors are supply chain. Let us evaluate each parameter one by one.

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Cost of wages

China’s average wage is 72000 CNY per year, the minimum wage is around 29800 CNY per year, this translates into 43000 CNY (assuming 30% white collar and 70% blue collar); Average of manpower cost is 495 $/P.M.. In India, minimum wage is around 5340 INR/P.M., wages of low skilled labour is 10900 INR/P.M. and wages of high skilled labour is 43200 INR/P.M. The average manpower cost is approximately 212 $/P.M. Personal Income tax rate in China is 45% and Social security tax rate is 48%. While Individual Personal Tax rate is 15-33%, Provident fund is also 24% on basic. Hence The Gap between Disposable Individual Income of two countries narrows down to 65% due to higher SST and IT.

China’s weighted average manpower cost is costlier by 134% as compare to India. Hence this is advantageous not only in terms of Cost but the availability of Manpower is not an immediate constraint.

Capacity and Capability building will emerge as a challenge going forward !!
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Availability of Power

Cost of Electricity a major component in production. China’s Electricity cost is 0.52 RMB/KWH while the same in India is 5.94 INR/KWH. In Dollar both country’s cost of electricity comes out to be 0.078 USD. Availability of uninterrupted power supply for Industrial production is at present a challenge for India. Although, NDA-II Government under the leadership of PM Shri Narendra Modi has geared up for this future need. The All India installed capacity As on 31.03.2020 is 370 GW, a jump of impressive 50% in NDA’s regime. However, the consumption grew by 36% in same period. Currently in 2019 the total consumption of electricity stands at 277 GW (1196309 GWh). A surplus of 107 GW at the moment. Transmission and Distribution Losses (T&D) were appx 20 % in India very high as against averages of world average of 8%. China’s T&D losses reported 5.91% in 2012. The current consumption of electricity by Industrial segment is 41%. We can cater the additional demand for electricity by cutting down T&D losses and utilizing unutilised capacity. But will that be enough if we need to cater increased demand from the world post Pandemic sentiments. This will need a short term as well as long term planning.

China’s 2018, Industrial power consumption sore to 4.72 Trillion GWh (1.1 Trillion Watts) on ~40% of Manufacturing share in GDP. The proportional use of electricity consumed for export is around 341 MW. This is around the total output of India’s all production capacity. For Each increase in Production by 100 $ Billion 14 MW Power needed.

If we can bring down India’s T&D losses to world average of 6%, the balance 14% equivalent to 50 GW would only be sufficient to increase production by $ 300-350 Billion.

Availability of Power is ceiling on aspiration of availing opportunity.
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Logistics and infrastructure of India and China

Next crucial parameter to compare is Supply Chain Management (SCM) this includes movement of goods (Raw material, Finished goods) from and to ports. The big countries are very particular about quality and turn around time (TAT). We will need to evaluate how we can improve various parameters vital to improve our response time and quality of logistics. India ranks at 44th out of 160 countries, while China stands at 12th Rank in terms of Logistical Performance Index (LPI) published by World Bank in 2018. Smaller countries like Indonesia, Hongkong, Taiwan fares better in terms of LPI. Some of the criterion, which need an evaluation are

  • Customs clearing process
  • Quality of infrastructure in terms of accessibility of inputs and deliverability of outputs
  • Shipments at competitive prices
  • Competitive logical services
  • Ability to track and trace shipments and
  • Timeliness of deliverable

While other parameters can be matched in short run, Timeliness and quality of Infrastructure the are two parameters which India legs behind as compared to China.

Capital Cost in a country is driven by Prime Lending Rate (PLR). Sovereign Banks always use PLR as a tool to incentivize infra and business projects. Current PLR of both the countries China and India are at PAR. So this is not an issue in the evaluation of criterion

Rent is the yield of Investment in Property. This is another factor cost for manufacturing industries. The Rental yield rate is 3.5% in Delhi as compared to 1.8% in Shanghai or 2.5 in Beijing. The Property rates are 2-4 times costlier in Chinese metro cities as compared to India’s metropolitan cities. This way the Rental cost should be lesser in China by almost 40-60%. The State Governments can provide Land at subsidized rate in order to decentralize already choking metro cities. This can be combined with Modi Government’s existing policy of Smart City Project.

FM, Ms N Seetharaman, announced Corporate tax rate for Domestic companies of 25.17% not claiming tax exemptions and 26.0%-29.12% for the companies intend to claim exemptions and incentives. The Corporate Tax rate of 17.16% is a boon for New Domestic Manufacturing set up on or after 1st October 2019. Foreign entrepreneurs will like to setup their manufacturing units as Domestic company to avoid a higher tax rate of 41.60%-43.68%. New tax slabs will make Indian products more competitive vs Chinese output as Chinese Corporate tax rate of 25% is higher by 8% in case of New manufacturing units.

Availability of Technology or Rights to manufacture are assumed to be provided by Import countries at a royalty. Normal Royalty rates are 2-5%. This loss can be compensated from the savings in Manpower, Rentals and Income tax.

Bottom Line

Manpower, Corporate tax rate is a plus point to India in the current scenario of availing opportunity. Power Generation, Supply chain Infra will be a challenge. Our Visionary PM Modi ji has already announced a spent of INR 100 Lakh Crores (appx $ 1.35 Trillion in next 5 years) but this opportunity came too early.

CAA-Polity or Humanity ?

There has been lot of uproar ever since the Citizenship Amendment Bill became Citizenship Amendment Act 2019. This has been rebuffed by the political parties, news agencies, foreign diplomats. However, no specific answer could be had about the furor.

How is Citizenship determined

A person can be Indian Citizen by birth, descent, registration and naturalisation as per Citizenship Act, 1955

  • By birth:
    • Every person born in India after 25.01.50 but before 01.07.1987,
    • Every person born between 01.07.1987 and 02.12.2004, if either of parent was Indian Citizen at the time of birth
    • Every person born after 03.12.2004, if either of parent is Indian Citizen and other is not an illegal migrant.
  • By Descent:
    • A person born outside India after 25.01.1950, if father was a citizen of India by birth.
    • A person born outside India between 10.12.1992, 04.12.2004, if either of his/her parent was a citizen of India by birth.
    • If a person born outside India after 02.12.2004 has to acquire citizenship,
  • By Registration:
    • A person of Indian origin been a resident of India for 7 years
    • A person of Indian origin who is a resident of any country outside undivided India.
    • A person who is married to an Indian citizen and is ordinarily resident for 7 years.
    • Minor children of persons who are citizens of India.
  • By Naturalization:
    • A person can acquire citizenship by naturalization if he/she is ordinarily resident of India for 12 years (throughout 12 months preceding the date of application and 11 years in the aggregate)
  • By Acquisition of Territory (not prescribed)
    • If India acquires a foreign territory, the residents of the territory naturally becomes Citizens of India

Government’s Powers to regulate, define special category under several acts passed from time to time

The Foreigners Act, 1946 (TFA) defines a foreigner as a person who is not a citizen of India. Section 3 gives power to Central Government (CG) to make provisions in respect of a particular foreigner, prescribed class for prohibiting, regulating or restricting the entry of foreigners. Section 3A (b) of TFA, (w.e.f. 19.1.1957) empowers CG to pass an order exempting any individual foreigner or class or description of foreigner.

The Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920 (TPEIA) Section 3(2)(a) empowers CG to exempt either absolutely or on any condition, of any person or class of persons rules requiring possession of passports. The rules made under this section should be passed in both Houses of Parliament within 30 days. The section 4 of TPEIA empowers any officer of CG to arrest and under section 5 CG may in general or special order direct the removal of any person without a passport.

The Passport Act, 1967 (TPA) authorises Government to issue travel documents such as (a) emergency certificate for person; (b) certificate of identity of the purpose of establishing the identity of person; (c) or other document as may be prescribed

Amendments in Citizenship Act

The laws are doctrines but need amendment according to the situation. There have been five amendments (1986, 1992, 2003, 2005, 2019) in The Citizenship Act 1955 including the recent one in 2019. The Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2003, was more stringent with regard to illegal migrants from Bangladesh and provided that either parent should not be an illegal migrant.

The Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 provides that any person belonging to Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi or Christian community from Afghanistan, Bangladesh or Pakistan, who entered into India on or before the 31.12.2014 shall not be treated as illegal migrant. and that aggregate period of residence shall be reduced to 5 years from 11 years earlier for grant of Citizenship

It is apparent from the provisos, that CAA2019 provides fast track citizenship to the minorities in the three countries adjacent to India. The other communities are still eligible for citizenship through registration and naturalisation process. CAA2019 doesn;t takes away someone’s Citizenship.

Gandhiji’s promise to Hindus and Sikhs remained in Pakistan

Mahatma Gandhi on 07.07.1947 said that Hindus and Sikhs living in Pakistan have a right to come here if they do not want to live there. The GOI is bound to provide them employment, citizenship and comfortable life. Nehru was also of the similar view as those people never demanded partiion, they were the victims of the partition. In his interview, Kerala Governor Arif Mohammad Khan told ANI [article published on 21.12.2019]

There is no clear data on Non-Muslim population residing in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Independent Pakistan first carried out their census in 1951 and last one was 1998. The Non-Muslim Population remained in the range of 2-3% as per Pakistan as per their census. Bangladesh population census clearly shows a decline in non-muslims population from 23.2% to 9.6% in 2011.

Amid, the news of forced conversion surface every now and then from Pak and Bangladesh and even a percentile decline in persecuted minorities in these countries makes one to think of the promises our leaders once made, sub-standard life adjudicated and atrocities that are carried to them.

The Government of India shaped an overdue promise in to a Law without disturbing status of Indian Citizens.


Aryan Migration theory – Unscientific story?

Aryan Migration theory (AIT) was courted and forwarded by European Indologist around 200 years back. The theory was adopted by Britishers to rule India by degrade Indian civilization. AIT borrowed word Sanskrit name Arya from Rig Veda (ऋग् वेद) in which this word refers to a kind, favorable, attached to, true, devoted, dear, kind hearted. The Europeans found some common words spoken in both Sanskrit and European language such as पितृ [pitru] for Pedro or father in European. More words in below table :

AIT was coined at the time when most of the technologies either were not available or were in nascent stages. Even Excavation of Mohanjodaro started in 1912, DNA profiling in 1980, Astronomical software only came off very late. A conjecture based on premises lacking scientific evidences. AIT was never studied scientifically and lacked corroborative evidences.

With the discovery of fossils of highly advanced civilization near Rakhigarhi, Haryana. Earlier Chariots remains carbon dating ~2500 BC discovered in Sanauli, UP, India Paleontology of Thar region provides sufficient reasons to believe Saraswati Once existed as mentioned in Rigveda. It gives sufficient proofs to surmise that Indus Civilization is Rivgvedic Harappan Civilization

Let us try to analyse what scientifically proven evidences exists as on today to refute AIT theory. We will also see WHY there was a need for AIT.

There are many cycles of rise and extinction of civilizations. There are evidences of mankind existence traced to 370,000 years till 3,000 BC in India. (I will discuss later) . However, as per Biblical framework, the world came into existence only after 2349 BC after the world destroyed in Noah’s flood in 4004 BC. On the other hand using astronomy software, it is established that Kaliyuga started at 3102 BC when Lord Krishna returned to Vaikuntha. The Vedic claim is clearly a misfit to most popular biblical framework by 700 years. Interesting isn’t it?

Lets analyse what other faiths claim versus what modern science says.

Various faiths are of the view that the world came into being few thousand years ago, is in contrast to the modern Big Bang theory. Also there is no correlation from these beliefs about other stone-age findings world wide. The Indic Vedas, however, of the view that world has been created and destroyed several times. Clearly spanning to larger time line and encompassing various stages of Human development.

Having set the context, let us fast forward from Vedic Time to the Treaty of Spain and Portugal in 1479 to share half of the world each as a property. Treaty of Alcáçovas signed on 4th Sep 1479 between Castile (most of Spain) and Portugal (most powerful powers and hungry for more revenues of that time) for the division of the Atlantic Ocean and Overseas territories into two zones of influence. The treaty of Alcacovas can be considered to be start of colonialism. The first international document on generally accepted principle in the ideology and practice followed till decolonization in 19th and 20th centuries

Treaty of Tordesillas 1494-1506

Treaty of Alcacovas 1479

Treaty of Tordesillas 1494-1506 between Spain and Portugal ratified by Pope Julius II, head of Roman Catholic Church to divide and colonizing rights for all newly discovered lands of the world located between Portugal and Spain. According to the treaty, the lands to the east on the globe would belong to Portugal and the lands to the west to Castile (majorly Spain of today).

Division of World into two parts by Spain and Portugese under treaty

Now that the formal agreements to divide the world into two hemisphere to share amongst Portugal and Spain. Columbus (a Spanish Sailor) went westwards hemisphere and ‘discovered’ America in AD 1492. Vasco-Da-Gama 1460-1524 (a Portuguese Sailor) sailed eastwards to discover sea route to India or better known as colonial empire in Asia. He reached Indian shores, Calicut on 20th May 1498. It is known he made three trips to India and died in the city of Cochin on Christmas eve in 1524. One can read about what happened after these explorer reached on the shores of Indies.

While Spain and Portugal remained global power and colonization masters till 17th Century, rest of the Europe didn’t have any rhetoric. Their was identity crisis of nationalist people. Europeans found that some 70 words from Sanskrit matched with German language and there started adjoining Sanskrit language with European European. Few words are given in below table.

The Aryan Immigration Theory (AIT) was a theoretical framework created to claim the credit of much advanced and enrich Indian Vedic literature and civilization by Identity crisis struck Europeans. We will see how India was exploited not only financially, the intellectual literature (Vedas) were also ripped-off to fit in their narratives. British Colonisation envious of the great wealth generated by Portuguese and Spanish, England, France and Netherlands began to establish colonies and trade networks Series of wars in 17th and 18th Centuries including the Battle of Plassey in 1757, made Britishers a dominant colonial power.

Europeans Quest for Identity

By this eithteenth century, Spain and Portugal had established their own glorified identities and Britain had India as their colony. However, Germans didn’t have such Identity for their gratification. During this period German Indologist Herder 1744-1803 was fascinated by the Indian literature and culture. So much so, that he claimed Sanskrit to be his own. And the discovery of India was attributed to re-discovery of Europe. This philosophy of attachment with Sanskrit filled the Germans’ non-identity crisis. Another German Indologist Karl Wilhelm Friedrich Schlegel (1772-1829) studied Indian culture. Schlegal’s attempt to prove Germans of highly civilised nation and superior to Greeks and Romans, He looked upon India as his ancestors and described Sanskrit as mother of all languages. European identity needs and colonial indology led Aryan master race which was possibly the reason for second world war holocaust purely out of racism. Question : why they took Sanskrit as their own and not Indic Gods – Linguistic divide ? German William Jones 1746-1794 theorised how to map Indians on the Biblical framework. In doing so, he mapped ‘Manu’ as ‘Adam’ ‘Narasimha’ as ‘Nimrod’. Those Indian Elements which didn’t fit into Bible were distorted or rejected. As per Bible, god created world 4004 BCE and flood of Noah happened in 2349 BCE. So naturally, rejection of Indian Yugas spanning milions of years. Any text in Sanskrit that did not fit in Bible was termed as ‘mythology’. So much disappointed with the vastness and timeline Vedas belong that he said, “Either the first eleven chapters of genesis are true or the whole fabric of our national religion is false” (The God’s of Greece, Italy, Asiatic researchers, vol. 1, 1788:p 225)

Jones was the first to propose a racial division of India involving an Aryan invasion but at that time there was insufficient evidence to support it (Bates, Crispin (1995). “Race, Caste and Tribe in Central India: the early origins of Indian anthropometry”. In Robb, Peter (ed.). The Concept of Race in South Asia. Delhi: Oxford University Press. p. 231) . It was an idea later taken up by British administrators

Britishers took forward this theory of Aryan’s racism superiority to control its new colony ‘India’. Lord Thomas Macaulay was appointed 1830s Governor General of the Indian provinces won by the East India Company. Macaulay his great ambition was to convert India to a Christian country. However, he realized that the Vedas were considered very sacred by all Hindus. Also the Brahmans, who preserved the Vedas, commanded a great respect. He pioneered the English system of education in India with a hope that the effect of his new education system would be “prodigious” (his term). Macaulay wanted Indologist European scholar Max Muller (1823-1900) to write about the Vedas in such a way that they would be considered nothing more than collections of some crude rhymes written by illiterate nomadic Aryan invaders, who came from Central Asia to India on horse backs. Macaulay thought that the attestation of an academician would look more authentic and unquestionable.

Mueller propounded the theory of Arya as a race of a family of languages and who spoke them – linguistic divide. At the same time the church evangelists working in South India to construct a Dravidian race identity because it suited there Christianity expansion. as per Max Mueller Riv Veda claimed only Brahman, Kshatriya as Aryan and categorized Sudra as non-Aryan. He called “Arya” (or Aryan) a race even though the Vedas mention nowhere that “Arya” is a race. Only many years later Muller realized his mistake and tried to emphasize that “Arya” does not denote a race but people who speak “Indo-European” languages. But the damage had already been done and his hypothesis of Aryan Invasion Theory had become a historical “fact”.

Max Muller, being a devout Christian, while assigning date of the oldest Veda, the Rigveda, could not give an earlier date than the origin of the world, which according to the Bible is 4004 years before Christ. Later the scientists estimated that the earth is about 6 billion years old. Muller arbitrarily wrote that Aryans came to India in 1500 B.C. and the Rigveda was written in 1200 B.C.

According to Hindu traditions, Kaliyuga started on the day Lord Krishna breathed his last on this earth. When this happened there was a conjunction of seven planets – Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, Venus, Mercury, sun and moon. It is astronomically estimated that this occurred on February 18, 3102 B.C. The Vedas definitely existed much before ‘Mahabharata’ period).

Max Muller’s Aryan linguistic category was converted by Risley while carrying out as commissioner 1901 Census in India , carried out “Nasal Index” to classify jatis as Hindus and tribes as non-Hindus. He decided that Indian consists of 2378 main casts and tribes and 43 races.

We saw how, quest of power and colonization led to the need of converting, manipulating, fitting in a manner to justify their Ruling of India as a colony. No-one had ever heard of Aryans coming to India upto mid-nineteenth century. One had also not heard that foreign people of “Aryan race” invaded India, conquered the indigenous people of “Dravidian race” and pushed them to southern part of India. However, now all this is part of the Indian history written by the British rulers of India. Europeans were exposed to Sanskrit and the Hindu scriptures sometime in the seventeenth century. They discovered that Sanskrit and the European languages had many common words. Thus the western scholars arrived at a conclusion that the “Indo-European” languages must have had a common origin. Their hypothesis was that from Central Asia a section of Sanskrit speaking Aryans came to India and another section of the same people migrated to Europe. We also observed false theory of Aryan and Dravidian race just a divisive policy of colonial masters.

AIT proved to be a theoretical & ethnological concept after various discoveries since 1914 excavations by ASI

In around 1914, when the ancient cities of Harappa and Mohenjodaro in the Indus Valley were excavated, the archaeologists found by carbon-dating that they were at least 5,000 years old. They were beautifully planned cities with wide streets, magnificent buildings and good drainage system. Britisher’s were still defiant of AIT theory. They stated that the Hindu caste order was reason for India’s Poverty. But failed to explain how Brahmins with worship rituals contributed make India top with 30% of world GDP. Apparently, they were escaping their responsibility of famine and poverty due to extraction of resources, higher taxes on indigenous production, re-importing goods exported from India, etc. An estimated 3 Trillion USD was drained out of India by the colonial masters.

Eventhough Government of India has acknoledged the Aryan Myth as fake an a concoction of British Colonisation, it fails to remove the topic from the education system of the country. The Aryan Theory is still taught in everyday classes throughout India as history and fact despite the overwhelming proves against it. It also a well known fact that Max Muller had confessed during his later days

Paleontologist evidences

Some evidences Migration was actually outwards of India and not otherway round

Discovery of ancient stone tools rewrites
the history of technology in India : As per modern science, homo-erectus extinct 600000 years ago Modern man came into being 80000 years ago. Question who was making precision tools in 350000 years

Narmada Man
The discovery in 1982 of a fossilized skull in the central Narmada valley in Madhya Pradesh, India, provides the first scientifically recorded evidence of human skeletal remains from the Indian subcontinent dating to the late Middle Pleistocene of 300,000 to 150,000 years ago. Dr. Arun Sonakia of GSI described Narmada Man to the hominid taxon Homo erectus narmadensis.
As per Raj Vedam The excavation in Keezhadi, Tamil Nadu, based on the studies and available data, the carbon dating should be in an interval of 821 BCE to 2974 BCE for the terminus layer.

Charriot excavated in Sanauli

is another proof that Horse domestication coincides if not precedes that of in Eurasia in BCE ~ 2500

Were Shrinking and shifting Rivers were reasons of extinction of Harrappan Civilisation?

Another study by A R Nair, S V Navada and S M Rao in their study on ground water problems in Thar Desert states that Reconstruction of the past climate in the region from palaeoclimatological and palaeontological studies indicate that cooler and pluvial conditions in the Holocene were present in thisregion during which recharge to these aquifers
could have taken place

The Indus civilization was the largest—but least known—of the first great urban cultures that also included Egypt and Mesopotamia. Named for one of their largest cities, the Harappans relied on river floods to fuel their agricultural surpluses. Today, numerous remains of the Harappan settlements are located in a vast desert region far from any flowing river.

Saraswati River is known as the holiest river of India, as much as it has retained its sacred character right from the Rigvedic age to the present day. The name`Saraswati’ is frequently used most of the ancient literatures like Rigveda, Yajurveda, Mahabharatha and Puranas. The Rigveda is supposed to be the oldest text which was probably composed more than 8000 years ago. [10]

Genetic Evidences

An Ancient Harappan Genome Lacks Ancestry from Steppe Pastoralists or Iranian Farmers (R1N1) [11]

The individual was from a population that is the largest source of ancestry for South Asians
Iranian-related ancestry in South Asia split from Iranian plateau lineages >12,000 years ago
First farmers of the Fertile Crescent contributed little to no ancestry to later South Asians

Conclusion [3]&[5]

The story of the Aryan invasion theory reveals how a thesis that reflected the European cultural experience of India gradually transformed itself into the ‘historical truth’ about India. This thesis had grown within a specific system of theological and historical beliefs that Europeans shared and depended for its coherence and plausibility on this system. Its fundamental theoretical outlines reflected conceptual patterns in the European cultural experience, rather than any scientific or empirical research into the Indian past. [Marianne Keppens and Jakob De Roover]

At the root of the trouble lies the dating of the Vedas to 1200 BCE by the German Scholar Max Muller. He did it on a very ad hoc basis and when his
contemporaries, such as Goldstucker, Whitney and Wilson, challenged his methodology, he surrendered by saying, “Whether the Vedas were composed in 1000 or 2000 or 3000 BC no one on earth can ever determine.” The pity is that in spite of such a candid confession by Max Muller himself many of his followers even today stick to this date, or at the most give concession to 1500 BCE. [BB Lal 2015]

Must watch more videos

  1. Timesof India on Harrappan Proof 
  2. Another report from TimesofIndia
  3. The Aryans were indigenous: neither invaders or immigrants – BBLAL, 2017
  4. Macaulay’s Minutes
  5. Orientalism and the Puzzle of the Aryan Invasion Theory
  6. Special Contribution of India to Knowledge System
  7. Dr Raj Vedam’s Video through Youtube Channel Srijan Talks
  8. Swarajy Mag on Chariot found in Sanauli, UP,
  9. Indiatimes report on Rakhi Garhi, Haryana
  10. Regional Remote Sensing Centre, NRSC/ISRO, Dept. of Space, Govt. of India, Jodhpur
  11. An Ancient Harappan Genome Lacks Ancestry from Steppe Pastoralists or Iranian Farmers
  12. Treaty Image Credit Treaty of Tordesillas 1494-1506 By Original: Biblioteca Nacional de LisboaPhoto: User:Joserebelo – Biblioteca Nacional de Lisboa, Public Domain,
  13. By Nagihuin – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0,
  15. Ancient civilizations continuity civilization harappan, etc… large period of rishis, enormous material ignored and forgotten hindu order created poverty but its invasion indian knowledge seeded world vut told otherwise no identity by vedic science riv veda mentioned sarawati in 2000 BCE while claimed that it was written in 1500BCE Astronomy derived dates provides sufficient proofs But claimed that Upanishads, Brahmas, Samahitas written in 300 CE R1a genome gone outwards not inward of India Mainstream narrative states Indian expanded eastwards not Westward, Indic civilization is recent While there are series of ancient history. They created an anchor points and called all Indian chronology as mythology

Evolution of USD as forex

What is Foreign Exchange?

There are several accepted Global/Reserve currencies viz USD, GBP, YEN, EURO etc. A country needs currency to settle Import/exports of goods and services and grants and subsidies in various forms.  Besides countries keep Gold, SDR, Sovereign Debts, Treasury bills.  Countries keep Foreign exchange in their vault to regulate exports and imports, meet expenses, repay withdrawing investors in case of war or emergency, settle loans, Investments, and goods & services bills;

Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserve (COFER)

The foreign currency reserves of all countries contributes around 58% of USD. Out of 11.418 Trillion USD Forex reserve, 6.617 Trillion USD are in US Denominated USD. This was 51% in Q4 of 2016. Confidence in USD by other countries have been increasing over 2 years.
[Refer Graph 1]

Why USD as an acceptable Forex

US constructed its Gold Repository vault at Denver Mint in 1935. The Gold stored at Denver Mint between Jan 1937 to June 1937 was 10947 metric tones and by March 1941 the Gold storage swelled to 19757 metric tones which was 65.58& of total US Gold reserves.

Prior to 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, most countries were on the gold standard. This also meant that all the countries were liable to settle their currency liabilities in Gold. In 1944, countries met in New Hampshire, and agreed to peg the exchange rate for their currencies to the U.S. dollar. US being having largest gold reserves that time, gave confidence to countries for backing their currencies with Dollar

IMF in 1969, created a monetary reserve currency to supplement existing money reserves of member countries created in response to the limitation of gold and dollars as mean to settle international account

Constraint in Supply of USD to meet increasing needs of the world

During 1970s, in order to combat inflation countries began demanding gold for the dollars. Rather than allow Fort Knox to be depleted of all its reserves, President Nixon in his controversial economic policies leading to stagflation, separated gold from USD pegging (already world’s top reserve currency at that time)

Concerns over US Deficit resulting in value of USD

in 2009, China and Russia raised concerns of intrinsic value of USD in case the inflation sets. US might print US Treasury to support its debts and its budget deficit.

They demanded for a new Global Currency not connected to individual nations and is relatively stable independent of characteristic change in individual currencies.

Yuan was awarded the status of reserve currency by IMF on 30th November, 2015. Yuan also found its place in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) Basket on 1st October 2016. The other currencies forming part of SDR are Euro, Yen, GBP and USD. To be able to be able to freely trade as forex, Yuan must be free-float currency.

Is USD still a better bet

Answer is Yes, as the other countries hold 6.6 Trillion Dollars in their COFER and any devaluation in USD will lead to severe financial impacts on other countries. Therefore, it is in best interest of the other countries to keep faith in USD.

At the same time, it is important to note that the US Debt-GDP ratio has been continuously rising since 2007 and is at 108% in 2020. The similar ratio was observed in 1941 when World War ended. Since FED rates are very low, a ratio Debt-GDP ratio of 300% is considered as comfortable. This ratio at 50% can be alarming for other developing countries with higher interest rate.

Inflation or Recession in US can lead to higher interest and higher debt servicing ratio, which can raise nerves of other countries. [Refer Graph 2]

Is Gold changing hands? Are we prepared?

An estimated above the ground 190,040 Metric Tonnes Gold exists in the world and 50,000 Metric Tonnes Gold still to be mined.

The Current Gold reserves of top 10 Countries. The total Gold reserves of 20 Countries is 30,000 Metric Tonnes (~18%) of Total gold available in the world.

US Central Bank still number 1 in terms of holding Gold of ~8100 Metric Tonnes is almost halved since start of its Gold Repository in 1941. At the same time. India holds only 633 Metric Tonnes in 2019. While Germany, Italy, France, China, Russia holds sizable chunk of Gold reserves. India needs to evaluate its Gold reserve Position vis a vis its Forex reserves [refer graph 3]

Is increase in Forex a Euphoria?

India’s Foreign exchange reserves rose to all time high and are currently at 476 Billion USD. India’s COFER consists of 6.8% as Gold while rest 93.2% is in foreign currency, SDRs, and reserved position with IMF. The Gold reserve ratio is 16% for the top 20 countries. US Tops the list with 77% as Gold reserves.

US, Germany, Italy, France holds Gold reserves more than 50% of their total exchange reserves. However, China holds 3% and India holds 7% This is a contrast for developed and developing countries. [refer graph 4]

Similarly, Net FDI Inflow of 529 Billion USD since 1998 till 2019 are valuing at 37 Lakh Crores as against their value of investment of 30 Lakh Crores Rupees. MTM liability of reduction by 25% due to dollar valuation. — Saving However, Gold value would have been more than doubled.

The accretion to foreign currency to our foreign exchange reserves since 1998 is 413 Billion USD, however, had this addition to foreign currency been invested at prevailing rate in respective years, the Forex reserves would have valued at 959 Billion USD. [refer table 1].

Of course, market equilibrium of increased demand and limited supply of Gold would try to set in. But then we should also remember that G7 countries hold big Gold reserves.

Bottom line

We have demonstrated that accretion of Gold inplace of USD would have doubled in terms of its current value. Whereas holding USD since 1998 gave us a saving of 25% due to MTM valuation of Dollar. Its time that we carefully evaluate our COFER in order to avoid any unforeseen USD valuation risk for our hard earned Foreign Exchange reserves.



India is 3rd in terms of GDP at PPP

Nominal GDP is the aggregation of all Gross Value additions in one year in any country at prevailing prices. It sums up all Business outputs, Business Investments, Government spending and Net Imports

Nominal GDP of top 10 Countries

“World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019”

But wait before we jump into conclusion let us try to understand how the denominator USD itself gets calculated

We all know value of one Rupee today is more than one Rupee tomorrow. This universal truth is valid for all the ‘financial assets’ in the world (including Fixed Deposits, Shares, PPFs, etc.). If we deflate value of a Dollar in 1960 with the yearly inflation that US underwent till 2019, the residual value of a dollar is 11.6 cents. Similarly a Rupee in 1960 has a purchase value of 1.4 Paisa due to inflation in India. We saw that Indian currency lost its value on time horizon faster than USD due to relatively higher inflation rate viz a viz US economy’s inflation. Indian Rupee lost its value 8.26 faster than USD. When we multiply this inflation parity factor of 8.26 with exchange rate of 4.76 INR/USD as on 1960, we get value of 39.33. This is the value of Dollar had all the valuations being driven by inflations/deflations.

Dollar value versus INR (split between inflation and other factors)

But that is not the case as Dollar rate on 2019 was 71 INR/USD. There is a settled gap of 32 Rupees as on 2019. This means that parity rate is not purely out of inflation of countries, there are other factors responsible for the gap in parity index such as standard of living, cost of living (inflation), resources of countries, fiscal health of the countries etc. viz a viz to each other.

The Big Mac Index is the price of the burger in various countries that are converted to one currency (such as the US dollar) and used to measure purchasing power parity. As per Big Mac Index USD should value at 33 INR in terms of purchase power of an identical burger in India vs USA. INR 33 is Not very far from our calculated value of 39 INR. As we mentioned earlier, this is due to several factors working simultaneously on the valuation of relative parity index of two countries.

Big Mac Index source :
Hey we just demonstrated that the value of burger is different in different countries

The World Bank releases PPP index calculated by estimating set of prices for items chosen from a common list of precisely defined items participating countries. These common lists include both regional items, priced in the region, as well as global items, priced in all ICP regions. These sets of prices cover the whole range of final goods and services included in the GDP: household consumption expenditures, government expenditures, and gross fixed capital formation expenditures. [2]

Now that we have Nominal GDP in local currency and PPP Index, let us divide both numbers. you will find a new global power order. China tops the list with 27.31 Trillion USD followed by 21.44 Trillion USD and India at number 3 position with 5.75 Trillion USD GDP at PPP.

BJP leaders must stop saying publicly that India’s GDP sixth largest in the world. … India’s GDP third largest today

Dr Subramaniyam Swamy (Rajya Sabha MP, Fmr. Union Cabinet Minister, Harvard Ph.D in Economics ) in his tweet on 19th March 2019


  2. “World Economic Outlook Database, October 2019”.

Interesting YouTube Video

Ekatma Manava Darshan

Prodded by ModiJi, I’m writing about a book that I read & why I think it is important
One of the important book that I’ve read recently is the Sanatan Dharmik, completely Indian, Integral Humanism viz Ekatma Manava Dharshanam of Pt Deendayal Upadhyaya Ji
Being Sanatan loosely translated as Eternal, it is good for all times to come. It propunds the need right from an Individual, to a group to citizens at large to attain the 4 Purusharts of Sanatan existence comprising
1-Arth ( various aspects of wealth creation)
2-Kaama (Pleasure or seeking love, procreation)
3-Keeping Dharma (Righteous Ethics & Values) foremost
4-So that the spiritually inclined can attain Moksha or realisation of oneself
It appealed to me both as an ism for advcemement of the individual & the society at large from Panchayat to the Union of India
As I read it I was amazed at the extent to which #Anthyodya is implemented delivering good governance & EMPOWERment to the deprived to help them fight their war on poverty & win
It is also the fountain head of the largest political party in the world, the BJP
The purpose of this blog is to generate an interest in reading & understanding it & making it a matter of research by Universities teaching Humanities & Politics
There’s a compelling case for it’s Understanding & adoption perennially as opposed to other isms which are circumstantial
Twitter : nrajabpcl

Solar – New Sustainable International Energy

Energy in various forms has been keeping entire Universe in motion. various names are given as mechanical, Kinetic, renewable energy, potential energy, wind, nuclear energy.

All types of energy has drawn their present condition from Sun in one form or the other. Fossil fuel, Crude oil etc. Except for all renewable energy source, all energy sources are going to vanish sooner or later. It is estimated that we have drawn almost ____% of through extraction of oil wells, Coal, Forests. They constitute ___ % of our present energy needs. What next when we have extracted all of these energy source.

It is estimated that Sun produces ___ jules of energy of which Earth receives ___ Jules,The energy gets reflected due to environment and heat is trapped due to green house. The energy so received by Earth is capable of feeding 100 earth’s

The world electricity consumption in 2018 was 25000 TWh and estimated 8000 billion litre petrol consumption in world is equivalent ot ~72000TWh. This makes our total energy requirement to 100,000 TWh. One Squre Meter SOLAR Panel is capable of generating 150-200 Watts Per Hour. If we discount it by seasonality factor and available day time the per hour generation becomes 29 Watts. One Square miles of Solar Panel is capable of generating 0.029 TWh. To meet Total Energy Demand we will need appx 2% of available land surface of 197 Million Square Kilometer on earth.

We observe that daily Sunlight is able to cater energy needs of 50 earths. The major hinderances are the CAPEX and T&D Costs.

We will need an installed capacity of 11.415 TW to feed world energy demand of 2018. At current cost of 0.75$ per Watt the total CAPEX need is approximately 8.6 Trillion Dollars.


Pre-Islamic Goddess seated on a swan found in Saudi Arabia, preserved in British Museum, and image of Goddess Saraswati as currently widespread in India

Cow – As an Economic Partner!

Cow is believed to have emerged from ‘Samudramanthan’. She is revered as a Godess by Hindus since Vedic Era because only ‘gives’ since birth to her death. She can help alleviate #Rural Poverty!

A Cow can continue to give us 2-4 KG #BIOGAS per day and can run a rurul kitchen for 10 days.

Its urine can work as a pesticide and insecticides if it is combined with Neem leaf or ‘Nimboli’

It is very effective’s alternatives to chemical fertilizers by enhancing productivity in long term with maintaining the soil health and enhances the microbial population.
Cowdung manure increases Soil’s organic matter, water holding capacity

Most rural population cannot afford conventional sand-cement mixture.
The ‘building blocks’ using Cow dung is low cost, resistant to water and durable.
It maintains thermal comfort (inhouse -temperature)

To promote #sustainable#selfreliant growth in #grams#Cow can play a vital role in #agroeconomics.

The total Economic Value of a cow (inc. value of its horns, skins) is close to crore INR.

With close to 15 Crores Cows, the economic value of Sacred COW is sizeable to GDP!!

Manure helps reduction in Water use for farming and natural food for Earthworm.
Fertilisers kill Earthworm! which otherwise would help rain water seepage of water by converting land into productive soil.

Photo by Magda Ehlers from Pexels

An Earth letter to Human!

THINK while we take a break!!

As #COVID__19 is to Human; Human are to Nature
Think of Nature was to find vaccine for itself of infestation by us ‘The Human Being’.

EARTH letter to Human👇

With 8 Billion, and still counting, you have caused severe damage to me.

#Deforestation has been major cause of disturbing my other family members animal. What if you were to live alone without Animals and Vegetation? You have shaved 3.9 million square miles (10 million Sq KM) of forest since start of 20th Century


#GlobalWarming has caused Glaciers been receding since 18000 BC. However, rate of depletion has increased alarmingly since Industrial revolution.
Ancient Dwarka Nagari was once an occupied place submerged into water. You must think again before it engulfs more land

Animals you eat have already outweighed the total weight of wild animal for your #NonVegetarian habits.
You bred them to satisfy your buds. Another cause of increase in green house effect.

How do I warn you of the pain I am suffering. You don;t understand my language. Hurricanes, Wild Fire, Rain deficit, floods. This is only a sign language I know


Now that we are taking a break. Choose your choices.

You can chose to cure my deeper sickness.

By protecting wild and wonderful form, you protect yourself.

What Future do you choose?

source …

Hindu Elements in Indian Constitution.

Struggle for Hindu Existence

Part. 3Part. 4

Hindu Elements in Indian Constitution. The implication of Hindu Culture and Tradition in Indian Constitution.

IC Pic 1 pg frontUpananda Brahmachari | Hindu Existence Bureau | 26 January 2014:: India i.e. Bharat is celebrating its 65th anniversary of adopting its Constitution as it was taken granted on the day of 26th January, 1950. We are very much proud for the Indian Constitution and celebrating the Republic Day, but we never look through the Hindu Elements in Indian Constitution or the implication of Hindu Culture and Tradition in it.

The partition of India in 1947, made this unique land of cultural unity divided into two pieces on the basis of two nation theory, Hindu-Muslim basis which was undesirable to the majority people.  But, the communal minority Muslims procured their holy land of Pakistan on the strength swords and the cunning politics in connivance of the British who adopted ‘divide-&-rule’ policy.

Though least blood shedder and…

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